I don't think you'll get autumn colours in march in Tassie. But February is definitely the best month to be down there. Least chance to get rained on. March and April in Victoria does not mean that the heat is gone - but definitely better than Feb and March. Especially if you want to go anywhere but Melbourne or the south coast you'll still have your mid 30s in Vic end of March.
I'd probably go for option one.
Looks like you're in for a great trip
Cheers
Danny

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